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Transpacific in Flight: Air Cargo's Challenge in the New Tariff Era

  • Writer: Marcos
    Marcos
  • May 20
  • 2 min read

Transpacific airfreight capacity is slowly recovering after tariff adjustment. Restrictions on e-commerce, coupled with volatility in demand, are changing the flow of air cargo and complicating the operational planning of supply chains.


Context and causes of the downturn

The elimination of the "de minimis" exemption by the United States - which allowed low-value packages to enter without tariffs or controls - and the imposition of 145% levies on other imports in April led to an abrupt contraction in demand for airspace. This initial shock resulted in a reduction of up to 40 flights per day, representing a loss of 4,000 tons per day, approximately 40% of previous capacity.


Bilateral adjustments and temporary relief

After intensive talks between the US and China, reduced tariffs were agreed for low-value shipments: - Parcels via postal networks: flat rate of USD 100 or 54 %. - Non-postal parcels: 30 %. Despite this partial relief, the de minimis exemption has not been reinstated, so airlines remain under pressure and demand could remain subdued in the medium term.


Signs of partial recovery

In the last week, wide-body freighter capacity between Asia Pacific and North America recorded an 18% increase (equivalent to 10 additional flights), although it is still 10% below year-ago levels. This recovery is a far cry from pre-tariff crisis volumes, but shows that airlines are beginning to readjust their operations.


Route diversification strategies

To mitigate the impact of the downturn on the transpacific route, multiple carriers have diverted nearly 70 aircraft to alternative markets, primarily Latin America and Mexico. This redeployment seeks to take advantage of regions with less tariff pressure and more stable e-commerce demand.


Impact on logistics and foreign trade

Fluctuations in capacity and prices make business planning difficult, generate competition for available space and raise operating costs, effects that are ultimately passed on to consumers in the form of delays and price increases. Uncertainty in trade policies adds an additional component of risk for the entire supply chain.


Future prospects and challenges

U.S.-China negotiations remain open with no guarantee of a lasting agreement.

  • If tariffs are tightened again, we could see a new wave of imports prior to the tariff change, intensifying bottlenecks

  • A stable pact, on the other hand, would normalize flows and reduce volatility, setting the stage for a sustained recovery.


SOURCE: Movant Connection - May 19, 2025

 
 
 

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